If empty buildings are attacked
Bashar al-Assad, the heir to the presidential chair of the Syrian Republic, has begun with the announcement of major reforms in every field, be it politically, economically or culturally, perform. But the domestic political deadlock that would be aptly characterized in view of the future prospects of the system with the words of decay and decline, shapes, six years after taking office the picture.
Which basic parameters of the Syrian economy, the eye is also, they can not hope for bright future. Syria's main exports are agricultural products in addition to oil. While were recorded in agriculture in recent years, moderate increases in productivity, as the government strives for self-sufficiency policy, especially in the food sector, the oil revenue is declining steadily because of depleting reserves. In a few years Syria will be a net importer of oil, rising oil prices, the impact of this dynamic yet be counteracted, then charge the Syrian budget further. In particular, given the declining oil production is the external balance of Syria since 2004 in negative territory. This was probably already in the years before that, but the massive smuggling of goods, in particular, which was operated by the Syrian army stationed in Lebanon, went past the statistics and distorted in this way the balance sheet. More exact figures came only after the liberalization of trade in 2004 to light. Inflation niggling worries, and economic growth remains insufficient: widespread corruption to the highest ranks of the state apparatus, strong regulation of the economy, lack of political freedom and a general uncertainty contribute to private investment further decline. Job creation can not keep up with the high population growth of over three percent step. A large proportion of employees working in the public sector because the government fight unemployment by de facto replaced by redundant offices. It subsidizes them such salaries and pensions, a significant portion of the population and keep it that way in a dependent relationship with the state. This is typical of the Middle Eastern rentier state distribution system in the future will no longer be economically viable. To reform in one may not
the "Ra'is" reproach in the face of countless bills and regulations, but it lacks in its implementation. The reforms are in fact solely to the paper. A new law should permit the establishment of a non-government press, but actually up now only appear trivial leaves. Bashar ordered by decree on the reduction of compulsory military service for two years, but the implementation can be further delayed. It is the same with the reformed tax laws, with plans to develop a method to compensate dispossessed landowners. For years, Bashar also speaks of the elimination of certain "irregularities" with regard to Parts of the Kurdish population. For still, as has been for decades, tens of thousands of Kurds wait for a reissue of their identity documents and thus of being recognized as full citizens of Syria. But it ruled the stagnation everywhere. The President, so many analysts agree, the own apparatus not adequately monitored. The encrusted power structures in the organized mafia leadership thwart any approach to reform and keep the country continues to iron grip. And the repression is increasing: only recently the largest wave of arrests swept since the arrests under the so-called "Syrian Spring" in 2001, once again many critical intellectuals in the infamous Torture-prisons. Bashar said recently in a televised address to his people, given the tense situation in Iraq and the ongoing confrontation with the West to go before the state security, political reforms should be put on hold.
The immobility of the regime in terms of development and reforms is quite a contrast to his creativity as a news producer and its capacity for theatrical self-presentation. For the air sovereignty over the news situation in Syria is in state hands as surely as indeed every public movement of people. Every once in state power demonstrated by means of fantastic reports on a very striking way Way that it still holds the reins in his hand. At times, however, cast doubt on the hawked versions of some incidents, and the suspicion of a grandiose spectacle to germinate. As found in almost regular intervals, small, isolated clashes between Islamic terrorists are "Jund al-Sham," a somewhat nebulous group with links to the recently liquidated Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, al-Qaida chief in Iraq, reputed and security forces instead. Either they are amateurish carried out terrorist attacks on irrelevant goals to be thwarted at the last moment by the security forces, or else the terrorists will be raids Anti-terrorist units equal duped preventive. The result is always roughly the same: some dead fighters and some old weapons, both equally unkind to the photo shoot lined up. Also around the Hariri investigation, there are sensational news. As Interior Minister Ghazi Kanaan, the Syrian commits inexplicable reasons, suicide, soon after he testified before the UN commission of inquiry into the murder of Hariri. Since just this commission is just the right time as the stronghold of the conspiracy against Syria unmasked, because the main witness Hussam can escape the manipulation and bribery attempts by UN investigators and Hariri family barely - over to the saving Syria, where he immediately there Freedom of speech is used and a detailed press conference, sprinkled in the following days as a permanent item on the State of ether the people. And - not to forget - is, finally, in the middle of Damascus, where each next best Kurdish demonstration yet at the meeting mercilessly beaten and one and all were arrested, a disorganized mob, the Danish and then share, the Norwegian Embassy on fire before him, the police finally to the French embassy still stop commands. In early June occurred again a message-relevant incident: Security forces foiled an attack on an empty building near the state radio and television station in the west of the capital. Five dead and several weapons will be presented later, at least 14 "Islamists", who came all from the same village are arrested in the following days. Which lies close to actually question why an empty building was to be attacked, is not discussed.
Two years ago, had taken place not far away from the crime scene also an attack on a vacant building for years. Previously it had been used by the monitoring of the ceasefire with Israel, UN Disengagement Observer Force competent now only two homeless families living in it. Four gunmen detonated a car bomb outside the house and subsequently provided with security forces on an hour-long gun battle, were killed in the wake of two of the attackers and one police officer and bystanders. Then came a crowd together on site, pictures of the President was in the air and chanted anti-American slogans, such as cars drove by winning a football game honking through the streets.
This optional inspired by the leadership and against the enemy abroad protesting masses are an essential and recurring motif in the Baathist choreography, the aesthetics of the other West European left should be quite familiar. The protesters wearing colorful Banners and flags, they shout slogans against imperialism and for the self-determination of peoples, solidarity and demand justice, hold vigils and stretch his fists against the heavens, as if to prepare to finally end the oppression. This resistance has a peculiar behavior of place, but there are demonstrators of the regime, small hangers and yes-men who stage their performance only in the order against the imagined, ubiquitous conspiracy from abroad.
The external function of the incident itself in this case is easy to spot. Syria was at the time because of the extremely suspected promote terrorism in Iraq under pressure. The United States accused Syria before repeatedly, not to protect the border with Iraq sufficiently to allow terrorist groups safe transit. Since that attack occurred, which should represent, according to government sources in retaliation for American support in the fight against al-Qaida. The Syrians demonstrating in this way that they would fight for its consistent anti-terrorism measures already with rebellion. Why attack an Islamist group but not the central institutions of the regime, but just a building of the UN should, is scarcely possible. Syria, however, could now represent a target of international terrorism and claimed thus to be the claim, not part of the problem, but part of the solution.
focus is to assess how much of truth and fiction mingle in the hawked robbers guns. There may be activities of small Islamist terrorist cells in Syria, so much is not disputed. But the stories about the events around functions have to fulfill in the service of maintaining power. In addition to a calculated propaganda effect depending on the situation to the outside depends probably a more important task of these messages inside. The idea is to get the respect from the state, the president and the executive organs by as vivid display of sudden power and to strengthen. The state must stand always victorious, for only the Victorious, the following safe, the only way is the established logic of the tyranny to himself
on ideological parquet have pan-Arabism and Arab socialism actually been lost since the Six Day War, their reputation and to that extent is the Syrian Baath Party of the 21st Century, an anachronism par excellence. A liberal Western-style civil society seems the least of a realistic goal to be in a country where the complex religious, ethnic, and tribal and clan affiliations de facto determine the personal status. Only Islamism, like socialism, formerly the Arab blank name with pan-Arabism, the potential to overcome the barriers (not resolve!) and the collective self-produce an egalitarian (emergency) community. The vision of a theocracy could create a mass base that is fit for a real opposition in the country. The regime agrees with this assessment, as was shown in 1982, when Hafiz al-Assad, the City bombing Hama to quell an uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood. Thousands of deaths and a ruined city it was worth the victory.
And actually emerged strengthened from the state this campaign of destruction. He had in the eyes of many gained legitimacy because, as was the argument from theological and from tribal sight, the right is the Victorious. The poor order, it wants the dominant Sunni tradition, demands loyalty and submission, as long as the exercise of faith is not impeded, because each order is finally better than none. And according to tribal tradition, it is the supreme authority of the tribal leader, desideratum of respect for his military success, which determines the supporters subordinate tribes. The fight Islamism means therefore for the regime, but to attach it as a present danger, but at the same time as impotent opponent draw, not the promised return. This
archaic logic, it is also what makes the crude propaganda of the state to take effect. The official pronouncements are not to many checks on their merits, not criticized, but only consumed as a grand-sanctioned truth. The generally low education levels contribute to the fact that is often dealt with politics in categories of conspiracy. The critical thought in would be the nexus of that company and would think that in itself is a manifesto of non-belonging, even of non-being in a society that can not live without affiliation. Criticism requires abstraction, requires concentration on the mere subject matter as something Detached away from all occupations. It requires an appropriately detached, free individual who can think beyond specific contexts of life and affiliations.
The ideological worldview of the Islamists is in the public pronouncements not only to language, or it coincides with that of the state - then the fact an act of desperation interpreted some confused, given the overwhelming foreign threat in the radical and irrational corner were driven. Have alleged the two after the attack on the empty UN building Condensed alive in a TV confession entirely according to the official languages, in their little groups have independently and from own Drive acted out and understand this action as a response to the aggression of the countries of the infidels, in particular Israel and the U.S. against the Muslims in Palestine, Iraq and elsewhere. The government behaves content, not antagonistic to the Islamist ideology, with which it is formally in political competition.
Syria can not confront Islamism content, on the one hand, because there are strong strategic fit, on the other hand, because the terror is finally sponsored by the State itself, as long as it is directed outward. The state offers exiled leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad shelter and support the Shiite Hizbollah guerrillas in Lebanon. This is all with the proviso to consider Syria as friends and country retreat and the authority of the Syrian state never to question. Syria goes with these tactics on a similarly dangerous tightrope walk as before Saudi Arabia, it could bring to breed his own demise. A significant difference, however, that the enemy of the Islamist movement, largely covered by the regime, even if the Islamists may put forward other reasons for their enmity. This gives the regime, or at least the strategic alliance with him, even in their parties a certain reputation. And the result is the first confusing Situation that the Wahhabi royal family of Saudi Arabia, the al-Qaida has to worry, while the secular military dictatorship of a heretical sect in Syria after the majority opinion is spared. This alliance provides the Syrian understanding of Terror: Terrorists are after the diction of Syrian militant enemies Bashar al-Assad, not those that contain music to ban Jews and murder of sense.
may arise Recently the impression that the alliance with the Islamists lost their only strategic character. It has been observed recently that the state propaganda increasingly used an Islamic style. "God protect you, oh Syria" is the most common patriotic slogan these days, and also the birthday of the Prophet was the first time this year celebrated officially. Self-government agitation in the sense of political Islam is now possible over national background: in the wake of protests against the Danish cartoons could be spotted on the road stretched national flags, which were provided with a call for a boycott of Danish goods. The government is trying to take the Islamist opposition, the wind from the sails by this not only to real political, but also closer to propaganda field. The secular regime has - in stark contrast to earlier times - no contradiction between religion and nation, or "Arabism" longer apply and demonstrate this by either some semantic shifts, or by specific political playing the Muslim card. It takes so implicitly, and tentatively for the first time religious authority. But suspicions, Syria will walk on this path to a religious state are erroneous. Bashar flirtation with Islam is a purely tactical nature, he embraced the enemy can not defeat him, and he uses the common denominator with this policy. In this respect, the demonstrative fight against Islamist terror is to this strategy is not contradictory. Someone told me in Damascus this way: "We are against any form of terrorism, whether al-Qaida or American and Israeli state terrorism But Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hizbollah are freedom movements against terror "It is this anti-colonial attitude in the struggle of these Islamist groups, which the Baathist regime, which has even the anti-colonial liberation up the cause, both to take over the rhetoric. but also allows for certain strategic alliances. Other hand, gives the national and territorial mobility of the "global players" al-Qaida and associated groups them a certain integrity and hence unpredictability, the solid alliances precludes categorically. Nevertheless ranks of the "rogue state" Syria certainly far down the list of velocity-relevant targets of the al-Qaida.
more need to worry the regime to the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood make: there are ideological but little difference to Hamas and others, but the focus is the commitment of the brothers not to fight against the Zionist enemy in the West or against the imperialist Great Satan in the East . They seek regime change in the own country - the expulsion of the infidels of the pots of power and the restoration of Sunni domination under sharia law. Her views and - more recently increasingly democratic rhetoric interspersed seeliger - communiques are understandably not published and commented only on their alleged atrocities (such as in Hama in 1982!), Or the alleged conspiracy activities abroad is reported. They are true terrorists in the Syrian mind, and in this point the Syrian regime may exceptionally well to the support of the United States are safe - despite the rhetoric.
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